2:15pm The Panel: “Opportunities in a changing economy” Starts
**Moderator: Juan Archibaldo Lanus French: **Argentinean ambassador in France in the years (1994-2000 and 2002-2006)
14:16 – Archibaldo Lanús: To avoid war and economic proteccionism after World War II, the following institutions are created:
- ONU (political aspect): Provided Security to guarantee that countries will be defended. The system, finally did not work, because USA and URSS applied a veto”
- FMI (Bretton Woods pact): Discipline in monetary conducts and the convertibility system.
- Creation of GATT (initially successful)
The speaker mentions unforeseen facts that changed the system:
- Globalization, influenced by the WWW. Goes beyond the State. Erosion of national states.
- Berlin Wall fall
- First time in 500 years. peripherical countries grow more than central ones (BRIC).
- Last year financial crisis was because the financial systems didn’t a have a clear norm creation as the commerce systems had. Ethical degradation in many cases.
- The system created after the post-war is still in change. We need gubernamental politics to stay ahead of the crisis.
14:48 – Ricardo Arriazu: Founding Partner and Head of Ricardo H. Arriazu y Asociado
“It’s not true that the World has a new paradigm, it’s not true that the world has changed”
Passing the ball
Having technology makes everything grow faster. China and India are examples of this. The economic cycles works as waves. The economic loops makes effective countries save on the good times, for the bad times. On the other side, Latin America has an erratic growth, where the effects of these cycles are amplified. Good times generate great spending and ineffiencies, which make tough time even tougher.
The growth may be because ecomonic cycles, or due to structural changes, as in China and India, where millions of people are introducted to the productive systems.
The economic bubbles are part of the cycles. The cause of bubbles is because human beings act in a bipolar way towards opportunity, losing the realistic approach, applified by speculation. Revenue becomes virtual.
The Crisis in the World Economy
It was a mistake to let Lehman Brothers fall. The bubble was among the countries that spent more: USA, Italy,..in the early 80’s USA starts increasing debt, in a phase called called Star Wars. That debt increased a long the years.
The speaker argues that Goverments applied the lessons learnt in the 30’s and could go through it. Nothing changed, the goverments did what they were supposed to according to the cycle in the economy they are.
He also says that a factor that will change the World in the upcoming years is the population getting elder . In the year 2050, population growth with stop. The main source of growth currently is the younger population that spends and saves.
Adriana Noreña:** Country General Manager and Director in Argentina, Chile and Colombia, Google Inc.
She gave the students three very basic messages:
- Internet in Latin America has left its diapers behind
- Internet numbers are getting bigger and bigger
- Big businesses not always start big
She presented the following video in after her speech: